New England Nor’easter: 11/7/12   Leave a comment

Well it’s the first day of November and everyone is still consumed in Sandy’s aftermath. It truly was an epic storm and a name that has only been used once will likely remain that way. But in this post I will not be talking about Sandy, rather I want to shed light on what the models have been depicting for the same area some time next week..

Surface temperatures (F), wind barbs (kt), and isobars (mb). GFS Run: 11/1/2012 12Z + 162 hrs. Valid: 11/8/2012 06Z

All of the (trustworthy) models are in agreement that by Thursday, November 8, there will be a moderately strong nor’easter off the coast of New England. So for those of you who thought you dodged a bullet with Sandy, it’s not over for you just yet. I’m not saying the heart of New England will see anything close to the magnitude of Sandy’s ferocity. Nor’easters are typical for this time of year, especially in that region. I am saying it will only add to the problem of disruption and damage in this area.

This particular system will form off the coast of Northeast Florida/Georgia/South Carolina in response to divergence within a broad, elongated upper-level trough over the Panhandle of Florida and travel northward along the coast until it reaches New England. Here it will interact and converge with a large low pressure system centered somewhere over Quebec/Ontario and maybe cause the nor’easter to travel inland. The GFS has it bottoming out at 988 mb, but then again it did underestimate the intensity of Sandy. The operational ECMWF had a better handle on the projected path of Sandy and so I am putting more confidence within this model for trajectory. The Op-ECMWF and GFS are spatially in agreement, however the European model is lagging just a bit temporally. The path and timing of this system will make the world of difference in terms of effects felt, especially if it centers itself right on the coastline. Since this is a week in advance, all the images to follow are meant to give a feel for what the storm could bring, and they are surely going to change as time grows near.

Precipitable water values (inches) and MSLP (mb). GFS Run: 11/1/2012 12Z + 162 hrs. Valid: 11/8/2012 06Z

In the image above, there is a clear moisture plume extending from the low’s circulation down to the Caribbean. If the storm can manifest more of the moisture (> 1.0 inches, noted by the yellow and darker colors) over land, flooding could become a problem.

500 mb vorticity and heights (dam). GFS Run: 11/1/2012 12Z + 162 hrs. Valid: 11/8/2012 06Z

Just like Sandy, a negatively tilted trough will add energy to the surface low as shown above. This image also shows a vorticity maximum centered over the surface low.

Estimated future snow depth (inches). GFS Run: 11/1/2012 12Z + 162 hrs. Valid: 11/8/2012 06Z

There will possibly be snow falling in upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Surface isotachs (kt) and MSLP (mb). GFS Run: 11/1/2012 12Z + 162 hrs. Valid: 11/8/2012 06Z

Gusty winds up to 50 mph in Massachusetts and surrounding coastal states are possible. This in turn will cause high seas and surf.

So 2012’s autumn has ramped up in terms of storms in the Northeast. Is this a sign of a new recurring pattern? We’ll soon find out!

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Posted November 2, 2012 by cwjjets in Forecasts, Miscellaneous

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